Canadian Dollar Update, August 11, 2020 – Canadian Dollar probing resistance zone
USD/CAD Open: 1.3292-96, Overnight Range: 1.3270-1.3361
WTI Oil is at $42.27 and gold is at $1,951.00. US markets are mixed today.
For today, USD resistance is at 1.3331. Support is at 1.3269.
• Equity market rally turns FX risk sentiment to positive
• Gold drops below $2,000.00 while oil prices rise
• US dollar on the defensive
The Canadian dollar rallied overnight and extended gains in early Toronto trading as traders buy risk assets. Wall Street closed with the S&P 500 index just 1.0% below its record high. Overnight, S&P futures soared to a new all-time high, in anticipation that the US government enacts a new coronavirus relief bill.
Global risk sentiment took a turn for the better as new US coronavirus cases continue to decline. The number of new cases is below 50,000/day, which although high, far better than the 70,000 plus cases seen in the middle of July.
Sentiment also got a lift ahead of the US quarterly refunding auction which lifted 10-year Treasury yields from 0.545% to 0.602%.
Those gains helped underpin USDJPY as well.
The rise in Treasury yields and improved risk tone, sparked a profit-taking sell-off in gold. XAUUSD dropped from $2029.87/ounce to $1974.57/ounce.
The Canadian dollar climbed along with its antipodean counterparts. AUDUSD gains outperformed those of NZDUSD, due to caution ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting, Wednesday. The RBNZ is expected to leave interest rates on hold, and the currency pair is vulnerable to a rally if the statement is less dovish than expected.
Canada Housing starts are released today but will not be a factor. The Canadian dollar is riding the coat-tails of a broad US dollar retreat, but the sustainability of the gains is questionable. Canada’s budget deficit ballooned to over 343.0 billion from a mere $25 billion, and the government has not released its plans on how it will be managed. Canada’s energy industry has not recovered from the oil price war nor has its distribution issues been resolved.
All the above suggest Canadian dollar gains will lag those of the G-10 currencies.
Today’s Suggested Range USD/CAD: 1.3240 – 1.3340