Canadian Dollar Update – Canadian dollar hoping for a US CPI boost
USD/CAD Open: 1.3566-70, Overnight Range: 1.3549-1.3580, Previous Close: 1.3574
WTI Oil open at $71.08 and gold open at $1,986.18. US markets are higher today.
For today, USD resistance is at 1.3599. Support is at 1.3581.
- Analysts expect US CPI to have dipped 0.1% to 3.1% in November.
- German and Eurozone economic sentiment improves.
- US dollar opens steady to mixed ahead of inflation data.
The Canadian dollar continued to play “follow the leader” in overnight foreign exchange markets. There are no domestic economic reports or speeches from Bank of Canada officials to give the Canadian dollar any direction, so prices rise and fall with US dollar sentiment.
That sentiment is cautiously bearish. The US dollar is on the defensive against its major G-10 currency peers because traders believe that US interest rates have peaked at 5.50% for this cycle. This morning’s inflation report is expected to confirm that sentiment.
Headline CPI is expected to have risen 3.1% y/y in November, a tick lower than the October increase of 3.2% y/y. The drop is due to a fall in gasoline prices. Unfortunately, the more important Core-CPI result is expected to be unchanged at 4.0% y/y.
If the results are “as expected,” then the FX impact will be muted because the two-day FOMC meeting begins today.
The Canadian dollar is struggling to make headway partly because of depressed crude prices. On November 30, Opec and Russia announced that production cuts would be increased from !.4 million barrels per day to 2.3 million bdp beginning January 1. Prices rallied but the move didn’t last as higher production from the US and other non-Opec countries combined with weaker-than-expected demand from China and rising US inventories drove WTI to the $70.00/barrel area.
EURUSD traded sideways in Asia then climbed from 1.0759 to 1.0808 in Europe. Prices got a lift from the better-than-expected German Eurozone Zew survey.
GBPUSD dipsy-doodled in a 1.2543-1.2585 range with the low seen following the UK employment report. Total average earnings dropped to 7.2% from 8.0% in the three months to October. The drop in wages increases the odds that the Bank of England will cut rates in June 2024.
USDJPY continues to consolidate yesterday’s losses that resulted from reports that the Bank of Japan would leave monetary policy unchanged in December. USDJPY got a bit of a boost after the US 10-year yield dropped from 4.24% at yesterday’s close to 4.197% today, but the gains have already started to fade.
AUDUSD inched higher in a 0.6563-0.6600 range, mainly due to the soft US dollar, but it also got a lift from higher base metal prices.