Canadian Dollar Update May 9, 2019

USD/CAD Open: 1.3496-1.3497      Overnight Range:     1.3467-1.3505

The Canadian dollar was rangebound in overnight currency exchange markets.  Oil is at $61.39 and gold is at $1,284.  US markets are lower. There are no releases scheduled for today’s session.

The short-term USD/CAD technicals are neutral-bearish.  For today, USD resistance is at 1.3520.  Support is at 1.3465.

The Canadian dollar continues to hover just above the bottom of its two-month range, and there is no relief in sight. The U.S. and China kick off round 10 of their trade negotiations, and this round appears to have gotten off to an acrimonious start. And U.S. President Trump is in the thick of things.

Trump blasted China yesterday when he was attending a political rally in Florida. He said to reporters: “By the way, you see the tariffs we’re doing? Because they broke the deal. They broke the deal… So they’re flying in, the vice premier tomorrow is flying in — good man — but they broke the deal. They can’t do that, so they’ll be paying.”

His comments added more fuel to the fire as he justified raising tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports to 25% from 10%. Trump was still seething from last week’s news that China returned a heavily edited transcript of what the American’s believed was a previously-agreed-upon Trade deal draft.

The president’s response isn’t anything that Canada and Mexico haven’t heard before. Both countries agreed to a new trade deal, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on Trade, and both countries still face U.S. tariffs.

Global equity traders reacted to Trump’s latest salvo, and the major Asian and European equity indices were sold. Gold prices climbed, and safe-haven currencies were in demand. The Australian dollar was the biggest loser in overnight markets due to the close trade relationship it has with China. Traders fear that continued trade tensions between China and the U.S. will reduce China demand for raw materials and slow global growth. Commodity currencies are vulnerable in that scenario.

The trade tensions sparked renewed demand for the Japanese yen. USD/JPY fell from 110.10 to 109.61, with additional selling pressure stemming from soft U.S. Treasury yields.

The British pound hit a one week low in early Toronto trading, continuing the decline that started last Friday. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Michael Saunders remarks today contributed to GBP/USD selling pressures. He warned that a “no-deal” Brexit would hurt the currency while increasing inflation. He added that a “no-deal” Brexit would result in a weaker economy with lower business investment which would be painful. Even though he was stating the obvious, fresh GBP/USD sellers emerged.

EURUSD bounced between $1.1175-$1.1202 in choppy overnight action torn between minor safe-haven demand which was offset by Brexit risks and broad US dollar strength. There wasn’t any euro-zone data.

The Canadian dollar was largely ignored in overnight price action with USD/CAD trading in a narrow $1.3473-$1.3494 range. Canada and U.S. Trade reports are on tap this morning.

Today’s Suggested Range USD/CAD: 1.3450 – 1.3550

Sincerely,

Rahim Madhavji | Knightsbridge Foreign Exchange | Toll-Free: 1-877-355-5239

www.knightsbridgefx.com

Knightsbridge Foreign Exchange has based the opinions expressed herein on information generally available to the public. Knightsbridge Foreign Exchange makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of this information and specifically disclaims any liability for trading decisions based on the opinions expressed and information contained herein. Such information and opinions are for general information only and are not intended to present advice with respect to matters reviewed and commented upon.

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